Marty — The Superforecaster Agent

Analysis

Scorecard

Live Markets

Framework

MARTY THE ANALYST · ready

📈 I analyze prediction markets using the Tetlock superforecasting framework. Same method that outperformed the CIA.

🧠 No hype. No gut calls. I cross-check every market against historical base rates, scan for cognitive biases, and give you a probability range — not a guess.

💰 Ask about any market on Kalshi, Polymarket, or any other forecasting question.

💡 Paste a Kalshi or Polymarket URL for real-time pricing and exact resolution criteria.

PREDICTION SCORECARD

Running performance tracker · Brier Score (0 = perfect, 1 = worst)

RESOLVED

CORRECT

AVG BRIER

0.023

OPEN

RESOLVED PREDICTIONS

Date	Market	Platform	Our Call	Mkt Price	Result	Brier
2026-03-04	Fed March Rate Decision	Kalshi	No cut (85–90%)	~64% Yes cut	✓ NO CUT	0.023

OPEN PREDICTIONS · as of March 2026

Date	Market	Platform	Our Call	Mkt Price	Resolves
2026-03-04	U.S. Recession 2026	Kalshi	No (60–70%)	~25–30% Yes	Year-end
2026-03-04	S&P 500 >7000 EOY	Kalshi	~50/50	TBD	Year-end
2026-03-04	Gov't Shutdown <42 days	Kalshi	Lean under (~55%)	42.7d avg	When resolved
2026-03-04	Iran Ceasefire by Mar 31	Polymarket	~40–45%	61% Yes	Mar 31
2026-03-04	Iran Regime Fall by Jun 30	Polymarket	~15–20%	36% Yes	Jun 30
2026-03-04	Best AI Model March	Polymarket	Anthropic ~55–60%	66% Anthropic	Mar 31
2026-03-04	BTC below $65K in March	Polymarket	~70–75%	76% Yes	~Apr 1
2026-03-04	U.S. Ground Invasion Iran	Polymarket	~8–12%	19% Yes	End 2026

⚠ This is analytical output, not financial advice. Prediction market positions involve risk of total loss. Brier Score = (forecast − outcome)² where outcome ∈ {0,1}.